Meet the New Hampshire Primary
The New Hampshire primary typically occurs in February, vying with the Iowa caucus for the first challenge of the presidential campaign. The press alongside betting companies often use the primary to make predictions for the final November ticket.
In elections since 1952, the New Hampshire Primary winner has correctly predicted the eventual party nominee 26 times, a 72.2% accuracy! Click on a decade to find out more!
Party leadership often rely heavily on data from these early primaries, and a good showing here is promising for November. This means that excessive amounts are spent advertising on TV and radio to try and get the best press coverage possible for a candidate.
1952 was a pivotal year for the Democratic Party. The New Hampshire primary, won by Senator Estes Kefauver, became part of the impetus for President Harry Truman to announce his decision to not seek re-election in the March. Despite his win in New Hampshire, Kefauver ultimately lacked delegate votes and lost the nomination to Illinois governor, Adlai Stevenson II. In the Republican camp, WWII general Dwight D. Eisenhower won a convincing victory in New Hampshire and secured his party's nomination at the convention. Ultimately, Eisenhower won the election by 442 electoral college votes to Stevenson's 89.
The 1950s
1950s America was a multi-faceted place. On the one hand, a booming economy and thriving suburban life painted a picture to the world of the continual flourishing of the American Dream. An age of mass media, Americans consumed more radio, television and magazines than ever before. However, life for many Americans, especially minorities, exposed an underworld of rife racism, gender inequality and segregation.
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On the global stage, American foreign policy continued to help post-war European re-building efforts with the Marshall Plan, hoping to stave off the encroaching force of Eastern bloc Communism. In Asia, American forces joined the Korean War fight against North Korean and Chinese forces, although this conflict quickly stalemated and became deeply unpopular at home. US interests in South East Asia also began to develop with interventions beginning in Laos and Vietnam as Cold War tensions threatened the security of the southern part of the continent.
The 1956 Democratic New Hampshire Primary saw Senator Estes Kefauver once again running for the nomination, against now former Illinois governor, Adlai Stevenson II. Like in 1952, Kefauver won the ballot, but failed to secure the party's overall nomination at the convention. On the other hand, Republican incumbent President Dwight D. Eisenhower ran unopposed for his party's nomination. In the November, the Stevenson-Sparkman ticket lost to the Eisenhower-Nixon ticket by 457 electoral college votes to 73.
The 1960s
The 1960s saw areas of boom for Americans. For women, the introduction of accessible contraception saw increased bodily autonomy. Major progress was also made in the campaign of civil rights, with the Voting Rights Act, however the assassinations of figures Malcolm X, Martin Luther King and Robert F. Kennedy saw the movement's progression slow throughout the decade.
For the Democratic Party, the 1964 ticket should have been uncontested with JFK charging forward with his re-election bid. However, following his assassination, now President Lyndon Johnson took a near unanimous victory in New Hampshire, and the November ticket too. In the Republican Party, a more contested race emerged. Despite his win in NH, Henry Cabot Lodge failed to secure the party's nomination at the convention, losing out to Barry Goldwater. November 1964 saw Johnson win a crucial victory leading Goldwater, 486 electoral college votes to 52.
The 1968 Democratic primary continued on the assumption of President Lyndon Johnson continuing his re-election bid. Johnson, despite winning the New Hampshire primary, later dropped out of the race, leaving his Vice President Hubert Humphrey to take his place on the ticket. For the Republican ticket, former Vice President Richard Nixon was back to take his place as Republican nominee with yet another victory over Nelson Rockefeller. Following a year complicated by the Vietnam War, Nixon won victory with 301 EC votes, to Humphrey's 191, and third party candidate Wallace's 46.
The 1960 New Hampshire primaries saw both eventual nominees storm to victory with significant margins. For the Democrats, up-and-coming Senator John F. Kennedy kept his early momentum going through to the summer convention with a victory over Paul Fisher. Similarly, Republican Vice-President Richard Nixon took a predictable win over Nelson Rockefeller. In the general election, Kennedy's mastery of television and media saw him win 303 electoral college votes against Richard Nixon's 219.
The assassination of President John F. Kennedy in November 1963 shook American politics. His successor, Lyndon B. Johnson led the United States into conflicts in Vietnam and Laos, continuing Kennedy's fight on communism. Elsewhere, the Cold War took on a different form - the Space Race. The decades' culmination with Apollo 11's moon landing officially put the US on the front foot headed into the 70s, but had also driven science and technology development forwards.
The 1972 Democratic primaries continued to highlight the disarray within the party. Following the failed campaign of Hubert Humphrey in 1968, the party turned to other sources. Maine Senator, Edmund Muskie took an early lead against South Dakotan Senator George McGovern, although this failed to provide him enough momentum to secure the nomination in the summer. Within the Republican Party, incumbent President Richard Nixon saw off challenges from both Pete McCloskey and John Ashbrook with a healthy lead to retain his position on the ticket. For eventual Democratic nominee George McGovern, he suffered at the hands of a landslide Nixon-Agnew ticket which stormed to victory earning 520 electoral college votes to the McGovern-Shriver's 17.
The 1970s
Abroad, the 1970s saw the continued presence of US troops in Vietnam. An unpopular policy continued to be dragged out far beyond a logical conclusion. This meant conscription and military drafts for men and led to mass protests across the nation. Later in the decade, Jimmy Carter would struggle amid a hostage crisis and worsening Middle Eastern relations.
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At home, things weren't much easier for the Republicans. The resignation of Vice President Spiro Agnew was followed quickly by the Watergate scandal. August 1974 saw President Richard Nixon resign in disgrace after it emerged that he knew about and sanctioned the Watergate burglary.
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For women, the Supreme Court's 1973 Roe vs Wade judgement protected the right bodily autonomy and the guaranteed protection of safe and accessible abortions.
The 1976 primaries saw shock challengers from both parties. For the Democrats, Georgia Governor and peanut farmer Jimmy Carter fought more established figures to victory in New Hampshire. He was joined by Minnesotan Walter Mondale to complete their ticket. The Republican Party also saw challenges to the established order as former California Governor, and entertainment star Ronald Reagan joined the race as a wholly credible threat to President Gerald Ford. Reagan's more conservative attitude won him many votes, however Ford managed to hold on until the convention and secure the nomination. Ultimately, Carter and Mondale won the presidency by 297 electoral college votes to Gerald Ford's 240.
The 1980s
The 1980s saw the New Hampshire primary accurately predict the nominee on all but one occasion.
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The 1980 Democratic primary saw incumbent President Jimmy Carter retain support even through a crashing economy and foreign instability, while former California Governor Ronald Reagan swept the field to victory for the Republicans. This followed through in November with Reagan securing 489 electoral college votes to Carter's 49.
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​The 1984 Democratic primary would be the only outlier for presidential candidacy in the decade. Colorado Senator Gary Hart's win in New Hampshire proved insignificant in the long run as Carter's Vice President Walter Mondale claimed eventual supremacy. In the Republican camp, incumbent Reagan was virtually unopposed and won with a significant margin. In November, incumbent President Ronald Reagan swept the electoral college losing just Mondale's home state of Minnesota to win 525 electoral college votes to Mondale's 13.​​​
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The 1988 Democratic primary saw Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis fight off challengers Missouri House Representative Dick Gephart and Illinois Senator Paul Simon. For the Republicans, Vice President George H.W. Bush fought former Vice President Bob Dole for the nomination after a successful New Hampshire win. A better Democratic showing saw Dukakis pick up 111 electoral college votes, but Bush claimed victory with 426 electoral college votes.
Domestically, the United States saw a period of conservative economic policies that came to be known as "Reaganomics." Part of this included high defence spending as the US continued to support the fight against communism in Europe. This also meant a period of increased nuclear tensions ultimately ending with the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union at the end of the decade.
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At home, Reagan's ignorance to the HIV-AIDS crisis cost thousands of lives. Furthermore, the Iran-Contra scandal saw weapons trafficking to Iran facilitated by Reagan's advisors in an attempt to fund rebel groups in Nicaragua.
Bar chart of 1980 Democratic Primary Results.
Bar chart of 1980 Republican Primary Results.
Bar chart of 1988 Republican Primary Results.
Bar chart of 1980 Democratic Primary Results.
The 1992 Democratic primary represented a turning point for the party after three consecutive election losses. Former Massachusetts Senator Paul Tsongas won here in New Hampshire, but second-placed Governor of Arkansas, Bill Clinton would eventually take victory at the summer convention. Republican incumbent President George H W Bush fought off challenger Pat Buchanan for the win in New Hampshire but had easily claimed overall victory at the close of the primary season. In the presidential election of 1992, the incumbents Bush and Quayle lost out to the younger, forward-thinking Democratic ticket of Clinton and Al Gore. Clinton won by 370 electoral college votes to Bush's 168.
The 1990s
The 1990s saw an explosion of mass media which gave America prominence on a new stage. American culture -TV shows, music, and film - dominated award seasons and reached every part of the of the globe. As part of this, American headlines echoed across the globe, with Bill Clinton's infamous affair with Monica Lewinsky being followed thousands of miles away. However, at home, domestic terrorism incidents, like the 1995 Oklahoma City Bombing, were early warning signs of trouble brewing in the new millenium.
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Abroad, American troops were involved in the Gulf War and across Europe as conflict emerged following the Soviet Union's 1991 collapse. The US continued to try and play the role of peacemaker, while intervening in what they felt were human rights violations across the globe.
In 1996, incumbent Democratic President Bill Clinton soared to primary victory by a 70,000 vote margin. He would see similar votes in nationwide primaries, and secure the party nomination without major opposition. Clinton's Republican opponent in November would be Bob Dole, who had a harder start to his campaign, losing the New Hampshire primary to rival Pat Buchanan. Despite the early loss, Dole still managed to secure his party's nomination for the presidential election. In the November, Clinton retained his presidency winning 379 electoral college votes to Dole's 159.
The 2000 New Hampshire Democratic primary saw Vice President Al Gore edge out former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley for the win, and a successful indication of his later nomination for the national ticket. For the Republicans, eventual nominee and Texas Governor George W. Bush lost out to Arizonan Senator John McCain. The election of 2000 was a controversial and divisive one. After a Supreme Court decision to stop a Florida recount, the presidency was awarded to the Bush-Cheney ticket by 271 electoral college votes to Gore-Lieberman's 266. Gore won the popular vote over Bush by over 500,000 votes.
The 2000s
The 2000s saw a continued rise of the internet and mass media, with American culture at the forefront. This meant more than ever before, the news was at people's fingertips. After the 9/11 attacks, Bush's War on Terror in Iraq and Afghanistan became daily global news, and contributed to continued criticism of his handling of the conflict. This continued with Hurricane Katrina and the 2008 financial crash. The end of the decade saw the election of the first black president and moves towards economic recovery.
Bar chart of 2000 Democratic Primary Results.
Bar chart of 2000 Republican Primary Results.
Bar chart of 2008 Republican Primary Results.
Bar chart of 2000 Democratic Primary Results.
The 2008 Democratic New Hampshire primary saw a fierce race between Senator, and former First Lady, Hillary Clinton, and Illinois Senator, the up-and-coming Barack Obama. What had been expected as a clear Clinton victory, saw Obama come a very close second, and eventually pip Clinton to the November nomination. The Republican Party also saw a close competition between Arizonan Senator John McCain and Utah Senator Mitt Romney. McCain's win in New Hampshire helped to bolster his national campaign, however his 173 electoral college votes was not enough to beat the Obama-Biden ticket with 365 electoral college votes.
2004 saw a regrouping within the Democratic Party with Massachusetts Senator John Kerry winning with a significant margin over closest challenger Howard Dean. Both New Hampshire primaries were accurate predictions of the eventual tickets. The Republican New Hampshire Primary saw incumbent President George W. Bush win with his closest challenger, Democrat John Kerry, whose support had come from write-in's. In the November elections, Bush and the Republicans won 286 electoral college votes to Kerry and the Democrats 251.
The 2010s
American foreign policy continued to dominate political discussion throughout the 2010s. US involvement in Afghanistan continued, and intervention in Libya followed soon after. The death of Osama bin Laden and the Arab Spring Crisis continued to create uncertainty and nervousness around the Middle East and North Africa.
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At home, America saw the legalisation of same-sex marriage, the Affordable Care Act (sometimes referred to as Obamacare), and the #MeToo movement bring social change to the country.
The 2012 Democratic primary saw Barack Obama virtually unopposed for the victory. In fact, his closest challenger was the Republican Ron Paul who had been a write-in by disgruntled Democrats. The Republican race was a closer one, but Mitt Romney won by with a clear margin. Romney come second in New Hampshire four years prior, but his win in 2012 helped to secure his party's presidential nomination. In November, the Obama-Biden ticket claimed victory winning 332 electoral college votes in comparison with the Romney-Ryan ticket's 206.
The 2016 primary saw the liberal wing of the Democratic Party prevail as Bernie Sanders, Senator for Vermont took a convincing win, securing a victory in each New Hampshire county. For Sanders, however, this victorious win would not be enough to beat off former First Lady and Senator Hillary Clinton for the eventual ticket nomination. On the other side of the aisle. a shock victory was made by anti-establishment candidate, and TV personality, Donald Trump. Despite winning the popular vote by more than 3 million votes, Clinton lost the electoral college 227 to Trump's 304.
The 2020 New Hampshire primary highlighted the inevitability that a win here secures a candidate's nomination. The Democratic Party saw fierce competition from various wings, with none of the top three candidates eventually winning the nomination. That went to former Vice President, Joe Biden. For the Republicans, the choice was easy - incumbent President Donald Trump. In an election disrupted by Covid, Biden and his VP Kamala Harris beat the Trump-Pence ticket by 306 electoral college votes to 232.
The 2020s
The 2020s have seen an increasingly divided political line in the United States. Cross-party backing for legislation has become almost impossible and government shutdowns occur regularly. In addition, much of the decade has seen mass protests from both Democrats and Republicans. Marches for protecting women's and abortion rights, climate change and Black Lives Matter have defined the left's political agenda for the first half of the decade. Meanwhile, the Republican Party has been associated with the storming of the capital on January 6th, 2021. America's position on the world's stage has been called into question, as has its leadership's ability to govern effectively in times of crisis.
The 2024 New Hampshire primary saw Democrat Joe Biden easily bypassing any contention for the nomination. His withdrawal from the election race, however, saw his Vice President, Kamala Harris accept the party's nomination in the summer. Republican Donald Trump saw off Nikki Haley's closer-than-expected competition to win a third straight nomination. The Trump-Vance ticket won 312 electoral college votes in comparison with the Harris-Waltz ticket's 226.